Is the housing market going to crash? What the data says
Updated with September 2026 data
Nationally, the typical U.S. home value is up 1.2% over the past year ($366k). Home values are falling in 28 of the 100 biggest metro areas, and the 30-year mortgage rate is 7.32%. That's a cooling market in many places - not a nationwide price collapse.
U.S. home values since 2000
Where values are falling
28 of the 100 biggest metros are below where they were a year ago. The biggest drops:
See every metro where prices are falling
What would a crash look like in the data?
A crash means prices falling fast and broadly. Watch three things on this page each month: how many big metros are falling (now 28), the national 12-month change (now +1.2%), and how many sellers are cutting prices (now 27% of listings). None of these predict the future - they show where the market is right now.
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Data Provided by Zillow Group (September 2026). Mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 22, 2026. General information, not a forecast or advice.